全国の生産者などを対象にした向こう3ヶ月の米価格の見通しを示す8月分の指数は前の月と同じ18となりました。この指数はゼロに近づくほど価格が安くなる見通しを示すもので50を下回るのは11ヶ月連続です。また2ヶ月連続で過去最低となっています。値下がり傾向が続く最大の要因は米余りです。民間が抱える在庫の量は7月末として過去最大となり新米の本格流通を前に安売りが続いているとみられます。

こうした中政府は来週18日に備蓄米21万トンの買い戻しを始めます。21万トンなら米価格への影響は少ないとの見方もありますが市場に出回らない米はこれだけではないんです。政府が進めるいくつかの事業で実に38万トンもの米が生産現場や倉庫に留め置かれます。買い戻しの分と合わせると去年放出した備蓄米と同じ59万トンに上る計算です。市場に出回る量が減れば価格の下げ止まりにつながる可能性もあります。

米は主食です。政府が進める物価高対策の効果にも影響するだけに今後の動向が注目されます。

The August index showing the rice price outlook for the next three months among producers and other stakeholders nationwide stood at 18, unchanged from the previous month. The closer the index is to zero, the lower the price outlook is; it has now fallen below 50 for 11 consecutive months. It also marked a record low for the second straight month. The biggest factor behind the continued downward trend in prices is a rice surplus. The volume of privately held inventories hit a record high for the end of July, and bargain sales appear to be continuing ahead of the full-scale distribution of the new harvest. Under these circumstances, the government will begin buying back 210,000 tons of reserve rice next week on the 18th. While some believe that 210,000 tons will have little impact on rice prices, this is not the only rice being kept off the market. Through several government programs, as much as 380,000 tons of rice will be kept at production sites and warehouses. Combined with the buyback, this amounts to 590,000 tons—the same amount of reserve rice released last year. If the volume circulating in the market decreases, it could potentially halt the drop in prices. Rice is a staple food. Since it also impacts the effectiveness of government measures against inflation, future developments are drawing keen attention.